【华润啤酒（0291.HK）】白酒商誉减值落地，啤酒主业表现优异——2025年业绩预告点评（陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅）

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to face a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to its acquisition in the liquor sector, while its core beer business remains stable and shows potential for growth [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 2.92-3.35 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 29.6%-38.6% [4]. - The expected goodwill impairment ranges from 2.79-2.97 billion, attributed to weak demand in the liquor market following the acquisition of a majority stake in Guizhou Jinsha Jiao Liquor [5]. - Excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, the company projects an operating net profit of 5.89-6.14 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.8%-29.0% [5]. Group 2: Beer Business Strategy - The company is expected to achieve low single-digit growth in beer sales for 2025, outperforming the industry average, with premium products like Heineken projected to see double-digit growth [6]. - Strategic partnerships with platforms such as Meituan and Yima for instant retail are being pursued, including the launch of a co-branded product "Snow Beer Whole Wheat White Beer" [6]. - For 2026, the company aims to maintain low single-digit growth in beer sales, focusing on differentiated products such as fruit beer and specialty wheat beer, which are expected to support long-term growth [6]. Group 3: Liquor Business Outlook - The liquor business will focus on stability in 2026, emphasizing high-end brands and maintaining price levels while selectively introducing mid-range products [6]. - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, with accelerated consolidation and the exit of smaller brands, indicating a wait-and-see approach for clearer market conditions [6].