【食品饮料】穿越周期，拥抱成长——零食量贩业态专题报告（叶倩瑜/李嘉祺/董博文）

Core Viewpoint - The discount retail industry possesses cyclical resilience, but individual companies may not share this characteristic, as evidenced by historical examples from the US and other markets [4] Group 1: Market Capacity Estimation - The target market capacity for discount snacks is estimated to be approximately 350 billion yuan, based on annual purchase frequency and amount [5] - The total number of stores that the discount snack industry can accommodate is around 67,000, calculated from the annual GMV of a leading brand [5] - The equilibrium state of store numbers is determined by market capacity, competitive structure, and logistical constraints, with a focus on enhancing single-store revenue as a core strategy [5] Group 2: Industry Upgrade Path - Expanding product categories can increase market capacity and potentially achieve higher profit margins, with a focus on high-margin products like daily necessities and stationery [6] - Establishing private labels can stabilize and enhance overall profit margins, contingent on maturity in scale, supply chain capabilities, and customer trust [7] Group 3: Pricing Logic - Market concentration varies across different retail formats, with the potential market share ceiling influenced by the sales radius of individual stores [8] - It is projected that in the next 3-5 years, leading brands in the discount snack sector will capture a market share of 10%-40%, with GMV revenue ranging from 75 billion to 105 billion yuan [8] - The improvement of gross margins is critical, with an expected increase in the share of customized and private label products being a key driver for overall margin enhancement [8]