国内高频 | 节后复工偏慢（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5] - Steel apparent consumption has improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8] - Steel social inventory continues to rise, with an increase of 8.3% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Petrochemical and Construction Industry - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has increased by 1.7% week-on-week and by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to -0.5% [12] - The operating rate of PTA has risen by 6.1% week-on-week and by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2.8% [12] - In contrast, the operating rate of polyester filament has decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [12] - In the construction industry, cement production and demand are showing signs of recovery, with a grinding operating rate increasing by 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20] - Cement shipment rates have decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6% [20] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased year-on-year to 9.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 6.9%, 21.7%, and -13.9% respectively [43] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has increased, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and highway freight vehicle traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [54] - Port cargo throughput has also increased year-on-year by 23.4 percentage points to 25.5% [54] Group 4: Price Trends in Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are showing a mixed trend, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices have increased by 1.1% [94] - The industrial product price index has risen by 5.0% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 8.7% [107] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The CCFI composite index has increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant rises in Southeast Asia shipping rates by 6.8% [84] - The BDI shipping rate has decreased by 6.1% [84]