中国出口的“HALO”时刻（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - China's AI product exports are experiencing significant growth, supported by the country's industrial chain advantages and the emerging "HALO" trading characteristics, influenced by geopolitical conflicts affecting supply chains [2][15]. Export Data Summary - In January and February, China's exports increased significantly by 21.8% year-on-year, while imports rose by 19.8%. The export growth rates for January and February were 10% and 39.6%, respectively, with the latter exceeding expectations [4]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival and a low base from the previous year contributed to the higher-than-expected export figures. The adjustment after the Spring Festival is estimated to bring February's export growth down to around 10% [4]. - The semiconductor sector led the growth with a 72.6% year-on-year increase in exports, while automatic data processing equipment and its components saw a 20.6% increase, contributing 4.5 percentage points to overall export growth [6]. Price Trends - The demand for AI-related products has led to significant price increases. In January and February, the export price of semiconductors rose by 55.7%, significantly outpacing the 13.7% increase in export volume [6]. - The export price index for electrical machinery and equipment rose from -4% in March 2025 to 5.3% in December 2025, indicating a recovery in pricing [6]. Regional Export Performance - Other East Asian regions also experienced high export growth, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam seeing increases of 44.5%, 31.3%, and 18.3%, respectively, driven by a high proportion of AI-related products [6][7]. - In contrast, regions with lower AI-related exports, such as India and Australia, reported much lower growth rates of 0.6% and -0.9% in January [7]. Product Category Performance - Various product categories showed significant improvement in export performance, with notable increases in agricultural products (12.1%), finished oil (9.9%), and machinery (27.1%) [8]. - The export of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment, both AI-related, saw substantial growth, with integrated circuits alone contributing significantly to Taiwan's and South Korea's export increases [7][8]. Conclusion - The ongoing global AI investment cycle is driving high growth in AI trade, with regions like Taiwan, South Korea, and mainland China benefiting from their high AI trade proportions. China's export growth in semiconductors, new energy, and electronic components reflects its industrial chain advantages and the emerging "HALO" trading characteristics [15].