今年通胀上行另有推手，元凶绝非石油

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the widely accepted belief that rising oil prices lead to higher inflation is fundamentally flawed, emphasizing that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon driven by the increase in money supply rather than changes in relative prices of oil [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Oil Crises and Inflation - The inflation of the 1970s and 1980s in the U.S. is often attributed to the oil crises of 1973-1974 and 1979-1980, but this perspective overlooks the role of monetary supply growth [3][4]. - During the first oil crisis, the M2 money supply grew at an average annual rate of 12.5% from July 1971 to June 1973, which was double the rate needed to achieve a 2% inflation target, leading to an inflation peak of 12.3% by December 1974 [4]. - Similarly, the second oil crisis saw M2 growth averaging 11.2% from January 1976 to December 1978, contributing to inflation rates rising from 7.6% in 1978 to 13.5% in 1980 [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Japan's Experience - Japan's response to the oil crises differed significantly from that of the U.S., as it learned from the first crisis and controlled money supply growth, resulting in a more moderate inflation rate during the second crisis [5]. - Japan's M2 growth was managed to an average of 12.8% from January 1976 to December 1978, leading to a modest inflation increase from 4.2% in 1978 to a peak of 8.2% in 1980 [5]. Group 3: Current Economic Implications - The article suggests that if the current U.S. administration continues to finance fiscal deficits through the banking system, the money supply will increase, potentially raising overall inflation rates [6]. - Conversely, if the growth of the money supply is controlled, increased spending on oil and gasoline could be offset by reduced spending in other areas, thereby stabilizing overall inflation levels [6].