国泰海通｜公用事业：调节电源的长期价值——火电VS储能

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the constraints on wind and solar power installations due to consumption limits, highlighting the clear profitability threshold for energy storage and the long-term value of thermal power as a foundational adjustment energy source [1]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Installations - The increasing installation of renewable energy sources is noted, with an expectation that national electricity consumption will double by 2060 based on a compound growth rate of around 1.7%. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the share of thermal power must decrease to below 20%, with new installations primarily in wind and solar [2]. - Many regions are already struggling to achieve profitability from wind and solar power, with a consumption limit estimated at 30-40% of generated electricity. If installations exceed 50%, external transmission or internal energy storage is necessary [2]. Group 2: Energy Storage Demand - The demand for energy storage is projected to increase significantly, from 270 million kilowatts in 2026 to 920 million and 4.5 billion kilowatts by 2030 and 2060, respectively, based on the 1:1 storage rule for wind and solar energy [2]. - If grid dispatch capabilities are optimal, provinces that have not yet reached their consumption limits will eventually do so, suggesting that the peak demand for energy storage may be delayed until 2027-2029 [2]. Group 3: Economic Viability of Energy Storage - The economic feasibility of energy storage is contingent on charging costs between 0.1-0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour, requiring a price differential of 0.4-0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour to achieve profitability. Northern provinces with stable electricity loads and surplus wind and solar installations show a more optimistic price differential compared to southern provinces [3]. Group 4: Thermal Power Valuation - Thermal power is not considered to have excessively high return on equity (ROE), and maintaining current levels is not seen as unreasonable. However, its valuation is significantly lower than other industries, suggesting potential for revaluation once dividend yields are realized in 2026 [4].