Group 1 - The article discusses how geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving the US, Israel, and Iran, are expected to stabilize coal prices during the off-season and elevate average prices [1][2] - International coal prices have risen by 20% due to surging natural gas prices, leading to increased expectations for global coal demand amidst high energy prices [2] - Domestic coal supply remains stable, but the significant rise in overseas coal prices may lead to a reduction in imports, which could support domestic coal prices from falling sharply [2] Group 2 - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 749 RMB/ton, reflecting an increase of 27 RMB/ton (3.7%) from the previous week [2] - The article notes that the demand for coking coal is expected to remain strong despite the off-season, with the price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port holding steady at 1700 RMB/ton [3] - The average iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but the demand outlook remains positive, suggesting that the coking coal market may not experience a typical seasonal downturn [3]
国泰海通 · 晨报260313｜地缘冲突或平抑淡季煤价下行波动，抬升均价
国泰海通证券研究·2026-03-12 14:03