数据点评 | 风暴将至——2026年2月美国CPI数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The February CPI data in the U.S. was "mediocre," with market focus shifting to how rising oil prices will impact inflation and how the Federal Reserve will balance "stagflation" risks in 2026 [1][6]. CPI Data Summary - February U.S. CPI year-on-year was 2.4%, unchanged from the previous value, while month-on-month it increased by 0.3%, showing slight warming. Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5%, also unchanged, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, slightly lower than January's 0.3% [1][6]. - The core goods index rose by 0.08% month-on-month, up from 0.04% in January, while core services decreased to 0.27% from 0.39% in January [1][6]. Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods saw a slight increase, primarily driven by clothing and used cars. Clothing prices rose from 0.31% to 1.28% month-on-month, likely due to seasonal changes and new product launches. The decline in used car prices narrowed to -0.38%, indicating potential future inflation in vehicle prices [9][14]. - Core services experienced a decline, mainly due to transportation services. The largest component, housing (Shelter), remained stable at 0.2%. Medical services increased from 0.3% to 0.6%, reflecting rising labor costs. Transportation services dropped significantly from 1.4% in January to 0.2% [14][1]. Market Reaction - Following the CPI data release, market reactions were "muted." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated only slightly by 1-2 basis points, maintaining an upward trend. The dollar and gold prices also showed weak responses, indicating that market focus remains on oil prices and geopolitical tensions [2][1]. Future Outlook on Oil Prices - The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation is expected to be significant in the short term for PPI and overall CPI, but limited for core CPI. It is estimated that a 10% increase in oil prices could raise overall CPI by 24-28 basis points and core CPI by 4-7 basis points [20][21]. - The relationship between oil prices and PPI is strong, with a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.57. The influence of oil prices is more pronounced on overall CPI, especially given the low base for inflation in March and April [20][21]. Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The expectation for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 has been revised from "1-2 cuts" to "at most 1 cut," with risks stemming from AI and private credit sectors. The Fed will need to balance the risks of "stagflation" and inflation, as rising oil prices could increase inflation while also exerting downward pressure on the economy [32][1].