市场不再预计美联储今年一定降息！特朗普敦促鲍威尔立刻降息：别等到下次开会！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates amid rising oil prices and economic concerns stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts, which could impact the Republican Party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Traders have significantly reduced their bets on interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a rate cut in 2026 no longer seen as 100% [5]. - Current expectations indicate a mere 24 basis points cut this year, down from an earlier expectation of 30 basis points [5]. - Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in the upcoming meeting, rising oil prices complicate the monetary policy outlook, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Political Pressure - The ongoing Middle Eastern conflict has led to increased oil prices, threatening global supply chains and raising living costs for American citizens, which could negatively affect the Republican Party's control in Congress [2][3]. - Trump has consistently pressured Fed Chair Powell for significant rate cuts, advocating for a chair who actively lowers borrowing costs [4]. - The political landscape is further complicated by Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh to replace Powell, which is currently stalled due to investigations by the Department of Justice [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. Treasury market has been under pressure due to investor concerns about sustained high energy prices leading to renewed inflation [7]. - On Thursday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 3.30 basis points, reaching a high of 4.2746%, while the 2-year yield increased over 10 basis points to 3.7637% [7].