【极兔速递-W（1519.HK）】全球化成长型物流企业，享中国电商出海红利——首次覆盖报告（付天姿/杨朋沛）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and market positioning of a global logistics service provider that has established a comprehensive express delivery network across 13 countries and regions, including China, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, highlighting its partnerships with major e-commerce platforms like TikTok Shop and Pinduoduo [4]. Southeast Asia: Profitability Base Driven by Scale Effect - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is experiencing high growth, with total parcel volume expected to reach 15.98 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% from 2025 to 2029 [5]. - TikTok Shop is rapidly growing in the Southeast Asian e-commerce market, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) increasing from approximately $4.4 billion in 2022 to about $22.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 127% [5]. - The logistics provider's parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia is closely correlated with TikTok Shop's expansion, with a 57.9% year-on-year increase in parcel volume in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 65.4% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBIT [5]. New Markets: Focusing on Brazil and Mexico - The Latin American e-commerce market presents significant opportunities, with TikTok Shop leading new growth. The region has a lower e-commerce penetration rate compared to Southeast Asia and China, with a fragmented platform landscape [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the logistics provider's parcels in new markets will primarily come from Temu and SHEIN, with TikTok Shop expected to increase its share of parcels processed by the company [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for new markets is projected to turn profitable in the first half of 2025, with expectations for adjusted EBIT per parcel to reach $0.09 in the second half of 2025 [7]. China: Intense Competition and "Anti-Internal Competition" Boosting Profitability - The long-standing price wars in China's express delivery industry have pressured single parcel revenue, leading to a shift from "price for volume" strategies to a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement as part of a high-quality development path [8].