市场猜测美国财政部已出手！芝商所总裁：如果美国干预原油期货，这会酿成“灾难性后果”

Core Viewpoint - CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that any attempt by the Trump administration to intervene in the futures market to suppress oil prices could lead to a "biblical disaster" [1][2]. Group 1: Government Intervention Concerns - Duffy emphasized that government intervention in commodity pricing would severely undermine market confidence, leading to unpredictable consequences [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. Treasury is evaluating various options to lower oil prices, including potential intervention in the futures market, although it has not yet taken action [3]. - The oil market experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude prices soaring to nearly $120 per barrel before plummeting above $80, raising speculation about possible government involvement [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - Large, unexplained trades in the oil market prompted speculation among energy traders and consulting firms about potential government buyers or sellers [6]. - Tim Skirrow from Energy Aspects noted that clients have been inquiring whether the U.S. government was behind recent large trades, suggesting that the seller might be the Treasury [7]. - The idea of the Treasury selling near-month crude futures contracts has gained unusual attention, according to a report from Rapidan Energy Group [8]. Group 3: Confusion from Government Officials - Confusion in the oil market was exacerbated by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's social media post about the Navy escorting a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which was later deleted and denied by the White House [9]. - Analyst John Evans from PVM Oil Associates expressed uncertainty about whether Wright's post was a mistake or a deliberate manipulation [10]. - Wright later stated that the U.S. military was "not prepared" to implement escort operations before the end of the month, adding to the uncertainty in the market [11]. Group 4: Overall Market Volatility - The combination of these events has led oil market participants to navigate dual uncertainties regarding supply prospects and policy signals, making short-term market volatility likely to persist [12].