张瑜：资产重“扩圈”，债券再思辩

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2025 is seen as a turning point for bond assets, transitioning from strong to weak, supported by three main reasons [2] - The first reason is the shift in residents' investable assets from "contraction" to "expansion," which is expected to increase the pressure on bond yields [20] - The second reason is the improvement in the economic cycle, which is anticipated to lead to upward pressure on bond yields as the distribution of deposits changes [33] - The third reason is the change in monetary policy focus from "quantity" to "structure," which is also expected to exert upward pressure on bond yields [36] Group 2 - The concept of investable assets is defined as the portion of disposable income that residents allocate beyond consumption, including stocks, funds, real estate, and deposits [5] - Since 2018, there has been a continuous "contraction" of residents' investable assets due to regulatory changes and economic downturns, leading to a significant increase in defensive deposits [7][24] - The "contraction" of investable assets has resulted in longer durations for bank liabilities and increased demand for long-duration bonds, causing bond yields to decline significantly [28] Group 3 - In 2025, a new "expansion" of investable assets is expected, driven by technological innovations and stable stock market policies, which will enhance the attractiveness of riskier assets [31] - The distribution of deposits is crucial for economic circulation; when deposits flow to enterprises, it stimulates production and investment, improving the economic cycle [10] - The upward trend in the "scissors difference" between enterprise and resident deposits indicates a recovery in the economic cycle, leading to upward pressure on bond yields [10] Group 4 - The relationship between resident deposits and monetary policy is characterized by a "seesaw" effect; as deposits shift towards non-bank institutions, the central bank may suppress interest rate declines to avoid systemic risks [11] - Historical data suggests that when the economic cycle improves, the volatility of funds tends to increase, which may lead to upward movements in interest rates [39] - The recovery in profit expectations reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts, as historical trends show that rate cuts typically occur during periods of declining industrial profits [41]