霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，但市场为何稳得住？

Core Viewpoint - Despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices and the U.S. stock market have not experienced expected volatility, with current oil prices around $100 per barrel, significantly lower than historical crisis levels [3][4]. Oil Price Dynamics - The primary reasons for the restrained oil price increase include: 1. Low starting prices and ample inventory, with global oil stocks at a five-year high before the conflict, keeping prices manageable despite a nearly 40% surge in nine trading days [7]. 2. Market expectations of a quick resolution to the conflict, as indicated by futures market data showing that traders anticipate supply disruptions to last only a few weeks [7]. 3. Macro interventions, such as the release of 400 million barrels from reserves by the IEA and its member countries, which help stabilize oil prices despite a daily loss of 15 million barrels in shipping capacity [7]. Historical Context of Oil Crises - Historical oil crises have seen higher absolute prices, and current major economies have significantly reduced their dependence on oil for heating and power generation [11]. - Estimates suggest that oil futures may need to rise by an additional $40 to $50 to trigger an economic recession comparable to past crises, indicating a macroeconomic buffer that allows conflict parties to maintain their positions [12]. Impact on Global Economies - The price increase is causing more severe disruptions in developing economies, particularly in Asia, which face compounded risks from soaring oil prices and fuel shortages [14]. U.S. Stock Market Behavior - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, largely due to the country's status as the largest oil producer, which insulates it from direct impacts of the energy crisis [15]. - An unusual market phenomenon has emerged where defensive sectors, typically seen as safe havens during geopolitical conflicts, have underperformed, with healthcare and consumer staples ETFs declining by approximately 5% and 6%, respectively [17]. Sector Rotation Insights - The rotation within the stock market is influenced by geographic exposure, with companies generating a higher percentage of revenue from North America showing better resilience against geopolitical shocks [22]. - Investors are shifting focus towards companies with strong growth potential rather than merely low valuations, favoring firms in the pharmaceutical sector that demonstrate solid earnings growth [22]. Cautionary Notes - Analysts warn that the current stability in asset prices relies on the fragile assumption that all parties desire a swift end to the conflict, with potential disruptions from unforeseen events capable of drastically altering market conditions [23][24].