如何看待伊以冲突的持续性及其对中国资产的影响︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is expected to persist longer than anticipated, impacting global supply chains and creating short-term risks for Chinese assets, while potentially benefiting them in the medium to long term [2][3][4]. Group 1: Conflict Analysis - The Israel-Iran conflict has lasted for 14 days as of February 28, with Iran continuing its aggressive stance and effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The U.S. administration, led by Trump, is recognizing the disproportionate costs and benefits of deep involvement in the conflict, with domestic political interests influencing their strategy [2]. - The probability of a ceasefire before April 30 is now below 50%, indicating a high likelihood of continued conflict [2]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Impact - The conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities in global supply chains, particularly the reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas transportation [3]. - Even if the conflict ceases, the perception of risk in global energy supply chains will likely lead to a permanent increase in risk pricing and a diversification of energy sources [3]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Assets - In the short term, the conflict may cause fluctuations in risk appetite and market sentiment, but China's robust energy reserves and manufacturing capabilities mitigate the fundamental economic impact [3]. - The potential for adjustments in overvalued sectors exists, but significant declines in the market are not anticipated due to the presence of undervalued and stable companies [3]. - In the long term, China's strong foreign exchange reserves, stable sovereign credit, and advanced manufacturing and renewable energy technologies position it as a safe haven asset amid global geopolitical turmoil, likely increasing global demand for RMB assets [4].