国泰海通｜煤炭：否极泰来，开启新一轮上行周期

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to lead to a new upward cycle by 2026, maintaining a strategic bullish outlook for the energy sector over the next 5-10 years [1]. Group 1: 2025 Coal Market Review - The coal market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations, with H1 characterized by a demand shortfall due to weather factors and high inventory levels from record imports and domestic production, leading to prices dropping below 800, 770, 700, and 650 CNY/ton [1]. - By June 2025, electricity demand rebounded with a 5% growth, contradicting pessimistic market expectations, while production restrictions initiated in July helped tighten the supply-demand balance, resulting in a rapid price increase [1]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, driven by demand from emerging sectors such as AI and renewable energy, with electricity demand expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% [2]. - The decline in new installations of solar power due to policy changes and economic pressures may alleviate the substitution pressure on coal, allowing thermal power demand to recover [2]. - Supply-side measures to control overproduction and potential reductions in imports could stabilize the overall supply, with coal prices expected to exceed 800 CNY/ton in H2 2026 [2]. Group 3: Global Energy Perspective - Globally, energy demand is surging due to deep electrification in industrial sectors and the rapid expansion of data centers, alongside climate change impacts driving peak demand [3]. - The current energy supply structure, particularly in developed countries, is struggling to meet the growing demand, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role as a stabilizing energy source [3].