对话吴任昊：拒绝宏大叙事，在四大核心板块寻找确定性机会

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term industry logic and company fundamentals rather than macro narratives, especially in a volatile market environment [2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, global capital markets exhibited significant "high volatility" and "strong differentiation," with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 23.5% despite experiencing two near 20% pullbacks [7]. - The MSCI China Index increased by 28.1% in 2025, but performance varied widely across sectors, with only the communication services and materials sectors having over half of their stocks outperforming the index [7]. - The U.S. market also showed notable differentiation, with only 2 out of the "Big Seven" tech companies outperforming the S&P 500 in 2025 [7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2025 focused on "concentrating forces to fight major battles," increasing sector investment concentration despite market volatility [8]. - The approach emphasizes "diminishing macro judgments and focusing on internal growth of enterprises," aiming to identify high-quality assets with the best risk-reward ratios globally [8]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Technology Hardware and Software: The focus is on the AI industry, particularly on foundational manufacturing capabilities that support the entire ecosystem. Observing price changes in supply chain bottlenecks is crucial for identifying investment opportunities [9]. - Commercial Infrastructure: The strategy involves identifying true winners in the AI transformation, emphasizing the importance of companies with complete ecosystems and user data [9]. - Advanced Manufacturing: Attention is given to industries with long-term barriers, such as overseas aerospace engines, which are expected to remain in a supply-demand mismatch for the next three years [9]. - Commodities: Chinese resource companies are highlighted for their better fundamentals and lower valuations compared to their global counterparts, with a focus on when these companies can achieve reasonable global pricing [9]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Opportunities - The Hong Kong market is experiencing positive changes on both the demand and supply sides, with increased attractiveness to overseas investors and a rise in quality IPOs from Chinese companies [11].