华尔街“全面转向”！多家投行警告“伊朗战争引发长期能源危机”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. military actions against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing the global energy market towards a severe supply crisis not seen in decades [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Crisis and Price Surge - Major Wall Street institutions, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and RBC Capital Markets, have collectively warned of a rapidly expanding supply gap, with oil prices at risk of further significant increases [2][5]. - Brent crude oil has surged approximately 40% since the onset of U.S. military actions, surpassing $100 per barrel [2]. - The supply of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased from over 19 million barrels per day to about 600,000 barrels, which is close to negligible compared to U.S. oil production [5]. Group 2: Impact on Fuel Prices - U.S. gasoline retail prices have risen to $3.63 per gallon, marking the 13th consecutive day of increases and approaching the critical psychological level of $4 per gallon [6]. - The market is facing severe shortages of diesel, aviation fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and naphtha, with analysts indicating that these products are essentially unavailable for consumption [5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - RBC Capital Markets predicts that oil prices may exceed the peak of $128 per barrel reached during the early weeks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and could challenge the historical high of approximately $147 per barrel from 2008 [7]. - The ongoing conflict is expected to persist into the spring of the following year, with the potential for further escalations in oil prices [7]. Group 4: Regional Impacts and Responses - Asian countries, heavily reliant on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz, are particularly vulnerable to the supply disruptions, prompting Australia to release domestic fuel reserves to mitigate potential shortages [9]. - The U.S. government has implemented several measures to stabilize the market, including naval escorts for oil tankers and the release of strategic oil reserves, but these efforts have not yet alleviated market pessimism [8][9].