数据点评 | 信贷结构优化可持续吗？——2月金融数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of corporate medium and long-term loans remains to be observed, with improvements in February attributed to a more balanced credit issuance rhythm in January and a low base effect from last year [3][41]. Financial Data Summary - On March 13, the central bank released February 2026 financial data, showing a year-on-year decline in credit balance growth by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%, while social financing stock remained flat at 8.2%, and M1 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9% [2][8]. - In February, new credit totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans down by 261.6 billion yuan and non-bank loans down by 294.9 billion yuan. In contrast, corporate loans increased by 450 billion yuan, with medium and long-term loans up by 350 billion yuan [5][43]. - Social financing in February increased by 23,792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,461 billion yuan, primarily driven by a 1,956 billion yuan increase in RMB loans [5][26]. - M2 growth remained stable at 9.0%, while new M1 rose by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9%. The structure of deposits showed a year-on-year increase of 25,000 billion yuan in household deposits, while corporate deposits decreased by 17,605 billion yuan [5][32]. Future Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to become more flexible and efficient, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in response to economic conditions. The government work report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and optimize structural tools [4][22]. - The fluctuations in commodity prices have not yet fully manifested in their impact on the economy, suggesting that policy measures may be adjusted to support stable macroeconomic operations [4][22].