瑞银：AI投资成为新兴市场"唯一缓冲"能源成本飙升之际

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are facing a significant reversal in recent gains due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has led to a shift towards a "risk-off" market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Performance - Since the outbreak of the conflict, emerging markets (EM) have become one of the worst-performing asset classes globally, as indicated by UBS's latest strategy report [1]. - The primary concern for emerging markets is their vulnerability to supply-driven energy shocks, particularly as Asia remains a major net consumer of Middle Eastern fossil fuels [3]. - Historical trends suggest that when oil prices rise above $90 per barrel, emerging market returns suffer substantial losses, indicating a challenging environment for EM stocks [3]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Prior to the conflict, emerging market stocks were not particularly "cheap," with their trading discount relative to U.S. stocks being well below long-term averages, exacerbating the current pressure [3]. - The market has absorbed highly optimistic sentiment, leaving little room for error as geopolitical risks escalate [3]. - The narrative of "selling oil-consuming countries" has gained traction, as institutional investors flee to safer havens [3]. Group 3: AI Investment as a Buffer - Despite the bleak macro outlook, AI trading may prevent a complete collapse of sentiment in emerging markets, as it has been the largest single driver of returns and earnings upgrades over the past 15 months [4]. - Key emerging markets with a high concentration of technology stocks may find bottom support, as the high investment phase of U.S. "super-large enterprises" remains unaffected by the conflict [5]. - If AI-driven factors continue to be insulated from the conflict and further oil shock concerns, strong performance in emerging markets may persist [5]. Group 4: Market Stability Requirements - For emerging markets to regain stability, there needs to be a stabilization of energy costs and clear indications that the global technology capital expenditure cycle is not impacted by geopolitical instability in the Middle East [6].