大宗商品双轨定价时代：资源稀缺与货币体系重构的逻辑框架

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is undergoing a profound transformation driven by structural changes in the geopolitical and economic landscape, rather than simple supply-demand cycles. Trends such as de-globalization, resource nationalism, normalized geopolitical conflicts, and accelerated de-dollarization are reshaping the pricing logic of commodities [2][3]. Group 1: New Pricing Logic of Commodities - The current resource scarcity in the commodity market is a result of the resonance between de-globalization and monetary credit restructuring, rather than a temporary supply-demand imbalance [5]. - The traditional pricing framework based on economic cycles and supply-demand gaps is inadequate to explain the current market volatility, leading to a new pricing era driven by "resource scarcity" and "monetary system restructuring" [3][5]. Group 2: Impact of De-globalization on Supply Chains - The rise of de-globalization has led to the fragmentation of global supply chains, with trade barriers and military conflicts causing significant disruptions in commodity flows, thus revealing resource scarcity [6][7]. - The shift from a cost-optimized global supply chain to a localized supply chain model has weakened the resilience of supply chains, increasing uncertainty in production and transportation, which in turn amplifies the perception of resource scarcity [7]. Group 3: Monetary System Restructuring and Resource Premium - The acceleration of de-dollarization and the ongoing dollar credit crisis have increased the resource scarcity premium, making commodities a key vehicle for hedging against credit risk [8][9]. - The decline in trust towards the dollar has led to a significant increase in gold reserves among central banks, with gold's share in global reserves rising to nearly 20%, the highest since the 1960s [8][9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Conflicts and Strategic Resources - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have significantly impacted commodity supply chains, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing severe disruptions in oil logistics [10][11]. - The blockade has led to a 90% drop in oil tanker traffic through the Strait, with potential production cuts looming if the situation persists, highlighting the strategic importance of resource control [11][12]. Group 5: Research Framework for Commodities - The analysis framework for commodities needs to evolve to capture the deep changes in pricing mechanisms, moving from a focus on economic cycles to a multi-dimensional approach that includes geopolitical risks, supply chain security, and strategic resource management [17][18]. - Future research should consider the integration of various time scales, from short-term geopolitical events to long-term structural changes in the global economy [23].