热点思考 | 中期选举“诅咒”：特朗普能否翻盘？—“美国中选”系列之一（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core argument of the article revolves around the "curse" of midterm elections in the U.S., highlighting the unprecedented pressure on Trump due to potential impeachment and political reckoning following midterm losses [1][6] - The "curse" indicates that the ruling party typically loses control in midterm elections, with historical data showing that from 1946 to 2022, the ruling party lost an average of 25 seats in the House of Representatives and 3.6 seats in the Senate [1][6][50] - Key factors contributing to this "curse" include unfavorable voter demographics for the ruling party, the tendency for support in election years to be above normal, and the correlation between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance [1][12][50] Group 2 - Breaking the midterm election "curse" requires two critical conditions: high presidential approval ratings and significant events reshaping voter priorities [2][17] - Historical exceptions to the "curse" include Clinton's 1998 midterm success despite impeachment proceedings, attributed to a 61% approval rating, and Bush's 2002 midterm gains following the 9/11 attacks, which shifted focus to national security [2][17][50] Group 3 - Trump's declining support stems from a misalignment of key issues and a worsening "cost of living" crisis, with his approval rating at 41% and disapproval at 55% as of March 12, 2026 [3][20][51] - The primary concern for voters is the cost of living, with 40% prioritizing it, followed by democratic values (24%) and immigration (17%). Key issues within cost of living include healthcare (33%), housing (23%), and food expenses (18%) [3][24][51] - Trump's policies have not effectively addressed rising costs, with tariffs exacerbating inflation and his focus on immigration and crime not aligning with voter priorities [3][28][51] Group 4 - To counteract unfavorable conditions, Trump may adopt unconventional strategies, emphasizing foreign security issues and reducing domestic living costs [4][52] - The midterm elections are characterized by lower voter turnout, prompting Trump to focus on core Republican voters while also appealing to independents [4][34][52] - Potential unconventional measures to lower oil prices may include restricting U.S. oil exports, price controls, and market interventions to manage inflation expectations [4][40][52]