国泰海通｜宏观：居民存款：继续“外溢”——2026年2月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of social financing and corporate loans in February is relatively stable, while the household sector remains weak. However, due to the preemptive fiscal spending and strong corporate foreign exchange settlement, M1 and M2 have risen against the trend, indicating that macro liquidity remains ample [1][2]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Corporate Loans - The total social financing growth rate remains flat at 8.2%. In February, government bond financing decreased year-on-year due to the Spring Festival impact. Cumulatively, from January to February, the net financing of government bonds decreased by 7.2 billion yuan, maintaining a similar issuance pace as last year [2]. - Although corporate credit appears to have increased seasonally in February, it is essential to consider the low base effect from last year's concentrated repayment of local debts. Corporate financing showed signs of recovery during the post-holiday period, but it is not strong compared to historical data [2]. Household Sector and Deposits - The household credit sector continues to show weakness, influenced by the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival and a trend of active deleveraging. The progress of fiscal spending and strong corporate foreign exchange settlement supports ample liquidity [2]. - In the first quarter of 2026, a peak in the maturity of household time deposits is expected. The combined data for January and February indicates a slight increase in household deposits, while non-bank deposits have significantly increased, suggesting a trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating. The direction of the funds that will be released upon maturity this year will determine the structural liquidity support in the market going forward [2].