出口高频回落——每周经济观察第62期

Economic Outlook - The OECD composite leading indicator suggests that China's export growth may further increase in July, with the G7 countries' indicator rising to 1% in February from 0.9% previously, indicating a potential upward trend in China's cumulative export growth [2] - Oil prices have surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil reaching $98.7 per barrel (up 8.6%) and Brent crude at $103.1 per barrel (up 11.3%) [2] - The decline in residential property sales has narrowed, with the transaction area in 67 cities increasing by 2% compared to the same period last year as of March 13 [2] Demand Analysis - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline, with approximately 1.034 million units sold nationwide, down 25.4% year-on-year [3] - The land premium rate has decreased, with a rate of 4.5% as of March 8, down from 7.86% in February [3] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a rate of 19.6% as of March 13, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] Production Insights - Construction activity remains subdued, with the recovery rate of construction sites lower than the same period last year, at 42.5% as of March 11 [3][17] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has continued to decline, standing at 23% as of March 12, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than last year [3][17] Trade Developments - The growth rate of container throughput at ports has significantly decreased, with a year-to-date growth rate of 11% as of March 8, down from 12.4% the previous week [3][23] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has seen a year-on-year decline of 15.6% as of March 13, compared to an average decline of 3.3% in January and February [3][25] Price Trends - Commodity prices have risen sharply, with the South China index increasing by 5.2% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index up by 3.9% [3][41] - The price of WTI crude oil has increased by 8.6% to $98.7 per barrel, while Brent crude has risen by 11.3% to $103.1 per barrel [3][41] - The listing prices of second-hand houses have accelerated their decline, with first-tier cities down 1.1% and nationwide down 0.8% as of March 2 [3][44] Interest Rate and Debt - Long-term bond yields have slightly increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.2768%, 1.5619%, and 1.8143% respectively as of March 6 [3][56] - The government plans to issue 128.2 billion yuan in new local bonds in the week of March 16, with a total of 3.831 trillion yuan in new special bond issuance planned for March [3][47]