中金：两会定调碳双控，供给约束再升级

Core Viewpoint - The transition from energy consumption dual control to stricter carbon emission dual control is expected to impose stronger constraints on the supply side of the chemical industry, leading to a potential revaluation of the chemical sector [2][3][30]. Policy Transition - National policies are shifting from energy consumption dual control to emphasizing carbon emission total and intensity dual control, with the petrochemical and chemical sectors being key focus areas [4][5]. - By 2024, China's petrochemical and chemical industry is projected to emit approximately 1.6 billion tons of carbon, accounting for about 13% of the national total carbon emissions [2][8]. Supply Constraints - The effectiveness of carbon emission dual control in limiting new capacity in the chemical industry is expected to improve, particularly for sectors with high carbon intensity and low value creation per unit of carbon emissions, such as coal chemical, refining, and industrial silicon [3][20]. - The supply-side constraints are crucial for sustaining the industry's return on equity (ROE) and maintaining long-term prosperity [2][30]. Industry Cycle - The chemical industry has entered a new upward cycle, driven by reduced capital expenditures and supply-side policies aimed at curbing excessive competition [24][26]. - As of March 6, the price-to-book ratio (P/B) for basic chemicals was 2.94x, positioned at the 66th percentile since 2012, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [2][26]. Carbon Emission Focus - The chemical sector's carbon emissions are primarily from carbon dioxide, which accounts for about 80% of total emissions, with significant contributions from methane and other greenhouse gases [8][10]. - Specific sub-industries such as refining, methanol, nitrogen fertilizer, calcium carbide, and ethylene are identified as major contributors to carbon emissions within the petrochemical sector [8][10]. Future Outlook - The implementation of carbon emission dual control is anticipated to create a more robust framework for managing emissions, including local assessments and industry-specific monitoring mechanisms [7][20]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a more favorable supply-demand balance, leading to improved profitability and valuation as supply-side constraints tighten [24][30].