海外高频 | 地缘摩擦升温，油价延续上涨（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are rising, leading to an increase in oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 11.3% to $103.1 per barrel [7][51] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 13 basis points [7][26] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.6% to 100.5, and the offshore RMB depreciated to 6.9077 [7][37] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8][98] - Real disposable income for U.S. residents increased significantly by 0.7% in January, primarily due to tax refunds [8][100] - The JOLTS job openings for January were reported at 6.946 million, exceeding expectations of 6.75 million [8][105] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury yields in developed countries rose, with the U.S. yield reaching 4.28% [26][32] - Emerging market 10-year Treasury yields mostly increased, with Turkey's yield rising to 32.93% [32] - The dollar strengthened against other currencies, with the euro and British pound both depreciating by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [37][46] Group 4 - Commodity prices generally increased, with Brent crude oil up 11.3% and WTI crude oil up 8.6% [51][58] - Prices for non-ferrous metals rose, while precious metals saw declines, with COMEX silver down 4.6% and gold down 2.3% [58][66] - The inflation expectations rose slightly to 2.36% [62] Group 5 - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $805.8 billion, indicating a decline from mid-February [70] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. reached $450.1 billion as of March 10, 2026, down from $505.2 billion in the same period last year [76] - Cumulative federal tax revenue was reported at $908.3 billion, an increase from $825.6 billion year-on-year [76][84]