大宗商品价格指数升至2011年以来最高水平——海外周报第131期

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting significant changes in inflation, employment, and consumer confidence [2][4][6][16][17]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US core PCE in January reached its highest level since March 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][16]. - The ADP report indicates a steady growth in employment, with an average increase of 15,500 jobs per week [16]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a three-month low of 55.5 in March, down from 56.6 in February [16]. - The JOLTS job openings increased significantly by 396,000 to 6.946 million in January, surpassing expectations [16][17]. - Japan's wholesale inflation continued to slow, with the domestic corporate goods price index rising by 2% year-on-year in February [5][17]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index fell sharply to -3.1 in March, down from 4.2 [6][17]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index rose to 2.62% for the week ending March 7, indicating an uptick in economic activity [7][20]. - Germany's WAI index also improved, reaching 0.01% for the week ending March 8, up from -0.09% [21]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.2% year-on-year for the week ending March 6, down from 7.0% [24]. - Mortgage rates in the US increased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11% as of March 12, up from 6.00% the previous week [25]. Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment report showed no change, with a cumulative addition of 62,000 jobs over the past four weeks [27]. - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 213,000 for the week ending March 7, down from 214,000 the previous week [30]. - The INDEED job vacancy index showed a slight decrease, with a weekly average of 104.5, indicating a decline in job openings [32]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising to 365.79, a 3.9% increase from the previous week [35]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.36 per gallon as of March 9, reflecting a 16.6% rise from the previous week [35]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.133, down from 0.150 the previous week [37]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed mixed results, with the yen to dollar swap basis improving while the euro to dollar swap basis deteriorated [39]. - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone widened, indicating increased risk perception [41][43].