【招银研究|宏观点评】稳步开局，静待阳春——中国经济数据点评（2026年1-2月）

Overview - The national economic data for January-February shows a significant rebound, exceeding market expectations, with industrial value-added growth at 6.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.2% [1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year, contrasting with the expected decline of 2.7%, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing investments [1] - Exports in RMB terms grew by 19.2% year-on-year, reflecting both a low base effect from the previous year and effective inventory preparations by companies [1] Domestic Demand - Consumer spending showed signs of recovery, with retail sales growth rising to 2.8% year-on-year, up 1.9 percentage points from December [3] - The growth in retail sales was driven by significant increases in categories such as tobacco and alcohol (+19.1%) and clothing (+10.4%), which contributed 86% to the growth in retail sales [3] - However, automotive consumption continued to decline (-7.3%), influenced by reduced subsidies and a high base from the previous year [3] Investment - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.4%, accelerating by 10.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, supported by government funding and rapid bond financing [6] - Manufacturing investment increased by 3.1%, with traditional industries upgrading equipment and new energy sectors expanding [6] - Real estate investment decreased by 11.1%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, with sales volume and price showing signs of stabilization [7] External Demand - Exports grew by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, driven by pre-holiday shipments and a global manufacturing recovery [8] - Imports also increased, with integrated circuits and data processing equipment seeing substantial growth, reflecting strong demand in the AI industry [9] - However, exports to the U.S. declined by 11%, which was a drag on overall export growth [8] Supply - Industrial production increased by 6.3% year-on-year, supported by improved demand and policy effects [10] - High-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 13.1%, indicating a shift towards new growth drivers [11] - The service sector also saw growth, with a production index increase of 5.2% year-on-year [11] Prices - CPI rose to 1.3%, driven by domestic demand, while PPI decreased by 0.9%, influenced by external factors [12] - The increase in CPI was primarily due to a surge in service prices, while PPI was affected by rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector [12] Summary - The first quarter is expected to see economic growth around 5%, with a stable recovery trend, although challenges remain in external demand and consumer spending as seasonal factors fade [13]