招商银行研究·2026-03-16 12:05Group 1: Macro Strategy - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is escalating, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively blocked, impacting oil supply and prices [2] - US inflation is on the rise, with the core PCE inflation reaching 3.1% in January, driven entirely by goods, as service inflation space narrows [2] - Market expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have diminished to 0-1 times this year, influenced by rising inflation concerns [3] Group 2: Market Performance - US stock markets experienced declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.6% and 1.3% respectively, amid ongoing Middle East tensions and inflation worries [3] - The market is shifting preferences from technology giants to non-tech sectors and from large-cap stocks to relatively undervalued small and mid-cap stocks [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a standard allocation to US stocks and increase exposure during valuation corrections, focusing on defensive and energy sectors for diversification [4] - The short-term outlook for the US dollar remains strong due to inflation concerns, while the medium-term trajectory will depend on the conflict's direction [4] Group 4: Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese real estate market shows signs of recovery, with new home transaction declines narrowing significantly and second-hand home transactions increasing by 3.8% [7] - Port activity has stabilized after a significant rebound in February, with cargo throughput at 23.39 million tons, reflecting a return to normal post-holiday operations [8] Group 5: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has weakened slightly, with 10-year government bond yields rising to 1.82%, influenced by inflation expectations and strong export performance [9] - The recommendation is to focus on short to medium-term bond investments, as long-term bonds currently lack attractive value [10] Group 6: A-share and H-share Market Trends - The A-share market continues to face downward pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%, influenced by global inflation and oil price concerns [11] - The Hong Kong stock market also declined, with a similar structural performance to A-shares, emphasizing the need for caution amid rising oil prices [12]