数据点评 | 经济开门红的“预期差”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in domestic demand is more significant than external demand, with a notable "expectation gap" observed in early 2026 [2][10][90] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for January-February increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 2.8%, driven by a longer Spring Festival holiday and government subsidy policies [2][10][88] - Key categories such as tobacco, alcohol, and staple foods saw significant improvements, with year-on-year growth rates rising to 19.1% and 10.2% respectively [10][88] - Service consumption also showed positive recovery, with restaurant income growth rising to 4.8% [2][10][88] Investment - Fixed asset investment rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, up 16.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a historically rare rebound [2][10][13] - Infrastructure investment improved notably, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, while manufacturing investment rose to 3.1% [7][52][57] - The decline in real estate investment narrowed to -11.1%, reflecting improvements in corporate cash flow and a reduction in the issuance of special refinancing bonds [2][10][13] Real Estate - Despite low levels of sales, new construction, and completions, real estate investment showed a significant rebound, with sales area and amount improving slightly [3][24][89] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies increased, contributing to the rebound in investment [3][24][89] - However, new construction and completion growth rates remain low, indicating uncertainty in future investment recovery [3][24][89] Production - Industrial value-added growth for January-February rose to 6.3%, reflecting the combined effects of the Spring Festival timing and improved demand [2][10][32] - Labor-intensive industries, such as food manufacturing, saw significant production increases, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [32][90] - The production of intermediate and capital goods also improved, likely due to stronger exports and investment recovery [32][90] Summary - The easing of pressures from debt and real estate is expected to lead to significant improvements in domestic demand, which may represent the largest expectation gap for the economy in 2026 [4][90][41]