数据点评 | 经济开门红的“预期差”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The "expected difference" in domestic demand improvement is greater than that of external demand, driven by a longer Spring Festival holiday, continuation of national subsidy policies, and recovery of consumer confidence [7][14][95]. Consumption - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.4%, with a rebound of 1.9 percentage points from December 2025. This improvement is attributed to two main factors: the longer Spring Festival holiday boosting consumption in tobacco, alcohol, and food categories, and the new round of "old-for-new" funding stimulating significant growth in home appliances and furniture [6][14][93]. - Restaurant income saw a year-on-year growth rate increase of 2.6 percentage points to 4.8%, while service retail sales also rose by 0.1 percentage points to 5.6% compared to the end of last year [7][14][93]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a remarkable rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in January-February, a rise of 16.9 percentage points from December 2025, marking an unprecedented recovery. This improvement is supported by a decrease in the proportion of special refinancing bonds and enhanced cash flow for enterprises due to previous debt-clearing policies [7][17][57]. - Infrastructure investment improved significantly, rising by 20.4 percentage points to 11.4%, while manufacturing investment increased by 12.7 percentage points to 3.1%. Service industry investment also saw a notable recovery, with a decrease in the year-on-year decline to -0.6% [17][62][68]. Real Estate - Although sales, new construction, and completion rates remain low, real estate investment showed a significant rebound, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -11.1%, an improvement of 24.7 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing also improved slightly, with a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, up by 2.1 percentage points from December 2025 [8][29][68]. - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies increased, contributing to the rebound in real estate investment. However, new construction and completion rates still face uncertainties, with declines of 3.7 and 9.6 percentage points, respectively [29][94]. Production - The industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in January-February, reflecting a significant rebound influenced by the "Spring Festival misalignment" and demand improvement. This increase is estimated to be boosted by 0.7-0.8 percentage points due to the holiday effects [6][37][94]. - Labor-intensive industries, such as food manufacturing and beverages, showed substantial production increases, while sectors like electrical machinery and non-metallic minerals also improved, likely due to stronger exports and investment recovery [37][94].