谁会先“断油”？这些亚洲国家可能撑不过40天……

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, with current estimates at 500,000 barrels per day, a reduction of 19.5 million barrels per day compared to historical averages, leading to a tightening global oil supply and rising prices [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Flow and Supply Impact - Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, with an estimated current flow of 500,000 barrels per day, down from an average of 20 million barrels per day [1]. - Approximately 17 million barrels of oil per day are still unable to be transported due to supply chain disruptions [1]. - The production cut in Middle Eastern oil countries is nearing 7 million barrels per day and may exceed 10 million barrels per day soon [4]. Group 2: Regional Supply Vulnerabilities - Southeast Asian countries are particularly vulnerable, relying on over 13 million barrels per day from the Strait, which constitutes about 50% of their total imports [7]. - Japan and South Korea are the most affected among the top four oil buyers, with 81% and 62% of their oil coming from the Strait, respectively [9]. - China has a relatively secure energy position, with reserves that could buffer against supply disruptions for nearly 300 days [9]. Group 3: Emergency Measures and Policy Responses - Many Asian governments are exploring emergency measures to stabilize domestic fuel markets, including export restrictions and strategic reserve utilization [17]. - Vietnam has implemented measures such as encouraging remote work to save fuel and suspending fuel import tariffs [17]. - Thailand has frozen diesel and gasoline prices and is using a fuel fund for subsidies to maintain low prices [18].