野村首席观点 | 陆挺：经济增速目标设定合理，8000亿新型政策性金融工具是亮点

Economic Growth Target - The government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, which is seen as reasonable and not conservative. However, achieving this target may be challenging due to weak consumption, real estate drag, and declining capital returns [7][8] - The slowdown in China's GDP growth is viewed as a structural and long-term trend, but the pace of decline is relatively mild compared to other major economies [8][9] Investment Expansion - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments, increasing from 500 billion yuan last year, which is expected to leverage an additional 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan in funds [10][11] - The total investment from these instruments, combined with other financial tools, could reach 1.3 trillion yuan, significantly enhancing project capital [10][11] Consumption and Real Estate - "Boosting consumption" remains a top priority, with plans to implement a 100 billion yuan special fund to support consumer loans and financing guarantees [12] - The real estate market is expected to take time to recover, with policies likely to be implemented on a city-by-city basis [12] Capital Market Insights - The capital market is seen as having a limited but positive impact on economic growth, particularly in supporting strategic sectors like AI and semiconductors [13] - The role of the stock market should not be overestimated as a substitute for fiscal and monetary policies [13]