国泰海通｜非银：财富管理需求旺盛，头部集中趋势明显——关于2025年下年销售机构公募基金保有量点评

Core Insights - The total non-cash fund holdings of the top 100 institutions increased by 14.7% to 11.7 trillion yuan, primarily driven by the growth in equity mutual funds [1] - The preference for fixed income plus products is rising, with banks losing market share to brokerages and third-party channels, indicating strong wealth management demand [1] Group 1: Fund Holdings Growth - The non-cash fund holdings of the top 100 sales institutions reached 11.7 trillion yuan in H2 2025, marking a 14.7% increase from H1 2025 [1] - Excluding equity funds, the holdings of other funds (mainly bond funds) amounted to 5.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.67% increase and contributing 43% to the overall growth [1] - Equity fund holdings reached 6.0 trillion yuan, contributing 57% to the increase in non-cash fund holdings, indicating that equity funds are the main growth driver [1] Group 2: Equity Fund Performance - The equity fund holdings of the top 100 institutions grew by 17% to 6 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with index funds accounting for 54% of this growth [2] - The third-party channel showed the largest contribution, increasing by 22% to 1.8 trillion yuan, contributing 38% to the overall growth, with Ant Fund, Tiantian Fund, and Teng'an Fund being the main contributors [2] - The strong market performance in H2 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 14.78%, led to increased trading activity, with an average daily transaction volume of 24.57 billion yuan in equity funds [2] Group 3: Market Concentration Trends - The market share of the top 100 wealth management institutions for equity and non-cash funds increased by 0.61% and 1.00% respectively from mid-2025 to the end of 2025, indicating a more pronounced head concentration effect [3] - The market share of banks in equity and non-cash funds decreased by 0.73% and 0.32%, respectively, as wealth management demand shifts towards brokerages and third-party institutions [3] - Fixed income plus products are increasingly favored, suggesting that banks with diverse fixed income products may see their market share decline [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - There is an increasing certainty that residents will enhance their allocation to equity assets, suggesting a focus on retail business share growth and potential investments in leading public funds or profitable brokerage firms [4]