比2008年更漫长的全球VC/PE寒冬

Core Insights - The private equity industry is undergoing a deep adjustment lasting longer than the 2008 financial crisis, with Bain & Company reporting that the industry has returned less profit to investors for four consecutive years while holding $3.8 trillion in unsold assets [2] - In 2025, the allocation of private equity to net asset value remains at 14%, the second lowest level since the peak of the 2008 crisis, despite a 44% increase in transaction value to $904 billion [2] - Fundraising has declined for four consecutive years, dropping to $395 billion in 2025, a 16% year-on-year decrease, as investors demand net internal rates of return exceeding 20% [2] Fundraising and Investment Trends - Private equity firms have sold "gem" assets but struggle to offload less certain assets, with the average holding period for portfolio companies extending from 5-6 years in 2021 to approximately 7 years [3] - In 2025, the total number of transactions decreased by 6% to 3,018, indicating a slowdown in market activity [3] - The Chinese VC/PE industry has entered a cyclical downturn, facing challenges in fundraising, investment, and exit strategies, with many institutions experiencing a "zero action" state [3][4] Market Dynamics and Structural Changes - The industry is experiencing a paradigm shift affecting the entire fundraising, investment, management, and exit chain, transitioning from a quantity-driven to a quality-driven approach [4] - Over 1,000 private fund managers have been voluntarily or involuntarily deregistered in 2025, accelerating the exit of "zombie institutions" from the market [4] - The dominance of state-owned general partners (GPs) in the fundraising landscape has intensified competition for private fund managers, with over 80% of new registrations concentrated among leading institutions and state-owned platforms [5] Development of Patient Capital - State-owned limited partners (LPs) are becoming the main force in developing "patient capital" and long-term capital in China, with measures including extending the duration of existing funds and setting longer terms for new funds [6] - The development of patient capital also implies the need for improved error tolerance mechanisms, encouraging innovation and allowing for flexibility in exit strategies [7] Future Outlook - The year 2025 marks a complete overhaul of the equity investment narrative, moving away from scale-driven models to a new era driven by national strategy, supported by RMB capital and industrial logic [7] - The data recovery in 2025 signals a return of market confidence, with expectations for a structural recovery in the Chinese primary market in 2026, driven by collaboration between state-owned and private GPs [7]