凌晨，鲍威尔重磅表态（附全文）

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive pause after three rate cuts last year [2][6] - Market expectations indicated a nearly 99% probability of no rate cut this week, with similar expectations for the next meetings in April and July [2][6] - The Fed's decision reflects caution regarding inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the Middle East [4][5] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell noted a recent rise in short-term inflation expectations, while long-term expectations remain aligned with the 2% target [3][9] - Powell emphasized that no rate cuts would occur until inflation shows improvement, and discussions about potential rate hikes have been mentioned [4][15] - The Fed's economic outlook includes upward revisions to inflation and GDP growth forecasts, with inflation expectations for this year adjusted to 2.7% and 2.2% for next year [7][8] Group 3 - The Fed's statement included a new mention of the uncertain impact of the Middle East situation on the U.S. economy, indicating a cautious approach [6][10] - The dot plot revealed that seven members expect no rate cuts this year, while twelve anticipate at least one 25 basis point cut [8][7] - Powell acknowledged that the current economic environment is challenging, balancing inflation risks against employment risks [15][55] Group 4 - Powell stated that the impact of rising energy prices on overall inflation is still uncertain, and the duration and extent of this impact remain to be seen [11][12] - The Fed is closely monitoring the potential negative effects of energy shocks on consumption and overall economic activity [14][46] - Powell highlighted that the labor market remains stable, but the balance is fragile due to limited growth in labor supply [39][72] Group 5 - The Fed's current policy stance is seen as slightly restrictive, with Powell indicating the importance of maintaining this position to manage inflation risks [15][55] - The committee discussed the potential for a two-sided guidance approach, but most members do not consider it a baseline scenario [84][85] - Powell expressed that the Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining price stability and achieving maximum employment [125][126]