鲍威尔：通胀改善前不会降息，调查期间不会离开美联储，必要时将以临时主席身份履职

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates until further improvements in inflation are observed, with discussions about potential rate hikes being reintroduced [3][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% and will not consider rate cuts without further inflation improvements [3][11]. - Discussions about the possibility of future rate hikes have begun within the committee, although this is not the prevailing assumption among most officials [3][11]. Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Current inflation cooling progress has significantly slowed, with short-term inflation expectations rising again in recent weeks [3][8]. - Tariffs and rising energy prices are creating a "double whammy" effect on inflation, with price pressures from tariffs still transmitting to core inflation [3][4]. - The potential for commodity inflation to decrease significantly may not materialize until at least mid-year [3][4]. Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The labor market appears stable on the surface, but there are accumulating downside risks, with job growth at low levels and a fragile balance in the job market [3][8]. - The energy crisis is not only pushing prices higher but may also negatively impact consumption, corporate costs, and disrupt supply chains, affecting employment and overall economic activity [3][4]. Group 4: Energy Market Impact - The ongoing energy crisis, exacerbated by the Iran conflict, has led to significant increases in international oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $107 [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the duration and impact of this energy shock on the U.S. and global economies is considerable [4][9]. Group 5: AI and Economic Productivity - Current macro-level indicators show that AI has not yet significantly boosted productivity, and in the short term, it may actually raise neutral interest rates due to increased demand for goods and services from large-scale data center construction [4][5]. Group 6: Federal Reserve Leadership - The Federal Reserve Chairman confirmed he will not leave the Fed during the investigation period and will continue to serve as "acting chairman" if a successor is not confirmed by the Senate [5][11].