一图解读美联储3月决议：如期“按兵不动”，年内料仅降息一次！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change, amid rising oil prices due to escalating Middle East conflicts [1][6][20]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The FOMC voted 11-1 to keep the interest rate unchanged, with a slight upward adjustment in economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2026 [20][24]. - The decision reflects concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [24][29]. Economic Forecasts - The Fed's median projections for real GDP growth are 2.4% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, slightly higher than previous estimates [15][25]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.4% for 2026, with inflation projections for the PCE index at 2.7% [15][25]. Inflation and Economic Risks - The Fed acknowledged rising inflation expectations, particularly due to higher energy prices, which could push overall inflation above the 2% target [18][30]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and its potential impact on the economy was highlighted, with officials noting that the effects are still unclear [18][24]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices saw a slight increase, while gold prices rose by $10, and the dollar index remained stable [19]. Internal Dynamics - There was a division among FOMC members regarding future rate cuts, with some members predicting no cuts this year, while others anticipate a potential cut in 2027 [24][25]. - The Fed's decision-making process is influenced by external pressures, including political dynamics and ongoing legal challenges faced by the Fed Chair [27][28].