芯片材料成本，或飙升

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI Taiwan) indicates that while there is no immediate risk of supply disruption for basic chemicals or raw materials due to the Middle East conflict, the risk of rising material costs remains significant [2]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Material Costs - SEMI Taiwan reports that Qatar's recent closure of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and helium output due to conflict may create bottlenecks for helium and other key raw materials used in semiconductor production [2]. - The president of SEMI Taiwan, Tsao Shih-lun, believes that there is no need for excessive concern regarding supply issues in the short term, but emphasizes the importance of diversifying procurement sources and enhancing supply chain transparency to improve resilience [2]. - Taiwan's Ministry of Energy states that the helium supply is secure and sufficient due to diversified procurement channels from suppliers in Australia and the United States, despite Qatar being a former major supplier [2]. Group 2: Impact of Global Events on Semiconductor Production - A report suggests that global supply fluctuations will not significantly impact local semiconductor manufacturers' chip production, as they have been recycling helium to reduce costs and dependence on new helium supplies [3]. - SEMI Taiwan anticipates that if the conflict in Iran is resolved within four to six weeks, there will be no interruptions in the supply of critical materials, as most chip companies have expanded safety stock and developed supply chain resilience strategies post-COVID-19 [3]. - SEMI analyst Tseng Jui-yu notes that while the Middle East conflict may be a black swan event for petrochemical producers, it is not the same for semiconductor manufacturers [3]. Group 3: Semiconductor Revenue Projections - The Taiwan Semiconductor Association projects that global semiconductor revenue will surge to $1 trillion this year, four years ahead of some analysts' predictions for 2030, up from $775 billion last year [3]. - The growth in global semiconductor revenue is attributed to the booming development of artificial intelligence and soaring memory prices [3]. - The association forecasts that by 2035, global semiconductor revenue will reach approximately $2 trillion [3].