3月FOMC例会 | 相机抉择（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged during the March FOMC meeting, signaling a hawkish stance with upward revisions in inflation and economic forecasts, while reducing expectations for rate cuts this year [1][2][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC decided to keep the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) target range at [3.50%-3.75%], with a dissenting vote from Governor Milan who favored a 25 basis point cut [2][7]. - The median dot plot indicates a potential for one rate cut in 2026 and 2027, with a current split of 12 to 7 in favor of maintaining rates versus cutting [10]. Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 upwards by 0.1, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, while also adjusting the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 to 4.3% [8][9]. - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% and 2.2% respectively [8][9]. Group 3: Forward Guidance and Economic Risks - Chairman Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach, stating that progress on inflation is a prerequisite for any rate cuts, and highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of geopolitical tensions [3][12]. - The Fed's current interest rate level is deemed appropriate given the balance of risks between employment and inflation, with Powell noting the difficulty in determining which risk is more significant [12]. Group 4: Oil Price Impact and Future Projections - Under the assumption of rising oil prices for 1-2 months, the Fed may only cut rates once in 2026, as the conditions for a "stagflation" scenario are not sufficiently met [15]. - The U.S. economy's resilience, supported by non-farm employment growth primarily from the public sector, suggests limited impact from high oil prices [15].