数据点评 | 财政支出再提速（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The broad fiscal expenditure is accelerating with structural optimization, and future focus should be on the effects of fiscal and financial collaboration [3][4][71] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In January-February 2026, the national general public budget revenue was 44,154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while expenditure was 46,706 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year [2][6][70] - Broad fiscal revenue showed a marginal recovery with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, significantly improving by 17.1 percentage points compared to December 2025, indicating initial signs of stabilization [3][7][71] - Broad fiscal expenditure increased significantly by 6.1% year-on-year, with the completion rate of expenditure at 14.1%, higher than the five-year average of 13.2% [4][47][73] Revenue Analysis - The marginal improvement in revenue is primarily supported by the recovery of tax income, while land transfer income remains weak, declining by 25.2% year-on-year [3][13][31] - Tax revenue turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, with domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax showing reduced declines, reflecting stabilization in micro-enterprise profits and industrial production [3][37][71] - Non-tax revenue showed a significant recovery with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [37] Expenditure Analysis - General fiscal expenditure increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with notable growth in social welfare (17.3%) and employment (8.6%) expenditures [4][19][52] - Infrastructure-related expenditures, such as transportation and agriculture, saw a significant narrowing of decline, indicating increased fiscal support for key areas [4][19][52] - Government fund expenditure surged to 16% year-on-year, primarily due to accelerated issuance of government bonds and pre-allocated funds [4][58][72] Future Outlook - Fiscal funds are expected to continue accelerating in the first quarter, with a focus on the implementation of fiscal funds and the effects of fiscal-financial collaboration [4][24][72] - The expansion momentum of broad fiscal policy in the second quarter may still rely on the net issuance of government bonds and the leveraging effect of funds [4][24][72] - Future fiscal efforts are anticipated to align with financial initiatives, particularly in new infrastructure and green transformation sectors [4][24][72]