国泰海通｜宏观：非税收入高增，支出发力靠前——2026年1-2月财政数据点评

Group 1: Fiscal Overview - The fiscal operation for 2026 has started smoothly, with a 0.7% year-on-year growth in general public budget revenue during January-February, indicating overall stability [1] - Tax revenue remained flat compared to the same period last year, while non-tax revenue saw a significant increase, reflecting a recovery in certain sectors [1] - The government is expected to maintain an active fiscal policy, focusing on optimizing expenditure structure and ensuring funding for key projects [3] Group 2: Revenue Analysis - Non-tax revenue showed a high growth rate, particularly in sectors related to capital markets, with notable increases in securities transaction stamp duty and vehicle purchase tax [1] - Import and export-related tax revenues increased significantly, indicating resilient external demand, while domestic consumption tax and income tax both experienced negative growth, suggesting a fragile recovery in consumption [1] - Real estate-related tax revenues remained low, highlighting the need for further policy support to restore market confidence and transaction activity [1] Group 3: Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.6% year-on-year in January-February, outpacing revenue growth and reflecting a policy direction focused on enhancing efficiency [2] - Social security, employment, and health expenditures led the growth, reinforcing the social safety net [2] - Expenditures in science and technology decreased by 8%, likely due to project implementation timing and budget allocation factors [2] Group 4: Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund budget revenue fell by 16% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income declining by 25.2%, indicating low willingness among real estate companies to acquire land [2] - Conversely, government fund budget expenditure increased by 16%, driven by accelerated issuance and utilization of new local government special bonds, supporting infrastructure investment [2]