2026年2月长三角五城商品住宅市场月报

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a seasonal decline in the commodity residential market of the five core cities in the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing, Suzhou) due to the Spring Festival, with expectations for a recovery starting in March driven by policy support and seasonal factors [2]. New Commodity Residential Market - The total supply of commodity residential properties in the five core cities was 519,300 square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 42.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.5% [4]. - Total transaction volume reached 654,700 square meters, accounting for approximately 52% of the overall transaction scale in the Yangtze River Delta, with average transaction prices at 38,958 yuan per square meter, reflecting an 8.2% month-on-month decline but a 7.9% year-on-year increase [4][11]. - Inventory and de-stocking pressures have increased, with Hefei and Hangzhou showing healthy de-stocking cycles, while Suzhou and Nanjing face significant pressures with cycles exceeding 20 months [4]. Market Resilience - The second-hand residential market showed greater resilience than new homes, with a total transaction area of 2,071,900 square meters in February, down 44% month-on-month and 25.8% year-on-year [5]. - The proportion of second-hand residential transactions in the total housing market rose to 80%, indicating a clear market segmentation trend of "new homes for improvement and second-hand homes for demand" [5][32]. Land Market - The land market showed a significant decline, with a total supply of 1,057,800 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 70.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 64.1% [6]. - The total transaction area was 88,400 square meters, reflecting a 94.1% month-on-month decline and a 94.9% year-on-year decline, with all transactions occurring at base prices, indicating low market activity [6][46]. Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - As of the end of February 2026, the overall de-stocking cycle for new commodity residential properties in the Yangtze River Delta reached 24 months, significantly exceeding the reasonable range of 12-18 months [17]. - Hefei and Hangzhou maintained healthy de-stocking cycles of 10.4 and 10.2 months, respectively, while Shanghai's cycle was at 17.8 months, and Suzhou and Nanjing faced cycles of 27.4 and 25.7 months, respectively [17][20]. Project Performance - The concentration of transactions in the commodity residential market of the five core cities increased, with top projects primarily located in core cities and premium locations [21]. - In February, the top-selling project was "Green City·Moon Reflecting on the Sands" in Hangzhou, with a transaction area of 14,625 square meters and a transaction amount of 556 million yuan [22]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates a seasonal recovery in the market starting in March, driven by the easing of restrictions in Shanghai and the release of pent-up demand [49]. - The new commodity residential market is expected to see a recovery in supply and demand, with a notable structural differentiation between core urban areas and non-core areas [50].