CINNO Research | 破壁前行：逆全球化背景下中国智能终端企业的战略升维路径

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic upgrades that Chinese smart terminal companies must undertake in response to the uncertainties of the global economic environment, particularly in the context of de-globalization and rising costs in the supply chain [4][5]. Group 1: Uncertainty as a New Normal - Uncertainty has become a norm in the global industry, with the previous trade order dominated by the West undergoing significant changes [5]. - The instability of policies in Western countries, particularly the U.S., and the ongoing technological restrictions on China are highlighted as major factors affecting the global supply chain [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as tensions in the Middle East, are creating new risks for global energy supply, necessitating a shift in corporate strategies to build resilience against these uncertainties [5] Group 2: Cost Changes Impacting the Industry - The rise in storage prices, particularly for DRAM, is expected to increase by over 105% by 2026, significantly impacting the cost structure of smart terminal products, where storage costs account for nearly 40% [8]. - The energy crisis, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, is predicted to lead to a rise in raw material prices and manufacturing costs, with terminal product prices expected to increase by over 25% [9]. Group 3: Strategic Upgrades for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises need to shift from cost competition to value chain competition, focusing on innovation and product differentiation to escape price wars [12]. - The AR glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with domestic manufacturers breaking international monopolies, and expected shipments reaching nearly 6 million units by 2030 [13]. - The domestic storage market is anticipated to grow, with Chinese manufacturers expected to capture over 15% of the market share due to rising prices and supply chain shifts [14]. - The display panel industry has seen a successful transition, with over 70% of global production now in China, showcasing the potential for similar advancements in other sectors [15]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - Future competition will focus on ecosystem building rather than individual products, with smart devices forming interconnected systems to enhance user engagement [16]. - The concept of "smart economy" is emerging, indicating a paradigm shift where AI becomes integral across industries, with significant implications for production and societal organization [18]. Group 5: Leading Standards - The competition is evolving towards standard-setting, with Chinese companies moving from the end of the value chain to the forefront of rule-making [19]. - The global landscape is shifting from product exports to the output of capabilities and standards, positioning Chinese firms to lead in technological standards [20]. - Investment in the AI industry is rapidly increasing, with nearly 900 billion yuan allocated since 2023, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related sectors [21]. Conclusion - To thrive in a complex global environment, Chinese enterprises must achieve strategic upgrades across three dimensions: supply-side value chain competition, demand-side ecosystem building, and rule-side standard leadership [22].