2026年1-2月财政数据解读：财政收入结构分化为何显著？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January-February 2026 indicates a recovery in fiscal revenue and an upward trend in fiscal expenditure, reflecting a strong signal for economic stability and growth at the beginning of the year [4][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In January-February, the combined revenue growth rate for the first and second fiscal accounts improved to -1.4%, compared to -2.9% in the previous period, while expenditure growth rose to 6.1%, up from 3.7% [6]. - The improvement in revenue is supported by a high growth rate in stamp duty, while the decline in land market revenue continues to widen [6][17]. - The general public budget revenue increased by 0.7%, with tax revenue growth at 0.1%, which is below the target of 2.9% for the year [8]. Tax Revenue Structure - Stamp duty continued to show high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, while other major tax categories like consumption tax and corporate income tax saw negative growth [11]. - The corporate income tax decreased by 3.9%, and personal income tax growth fell to -6.9%, influenced by the timing of the Lunar New Year [12]. Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenue saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 16%, primarily due to a 25.2% drop in land transfer revenue [17]. Expenditure Trends - The expenditure growth for the first fiscal account rose to 3.6%, driven by strong infrastructure spending, which grew at 11.4% [22]. - Social security expenditure increased by 8.6%, while spending on education and technology saw declines [22]. Special Bonds and Infrastructure Support - The issuance of special bonds has been accelerated, with a total of 824.2 billion yuan issued in January-February, marking an 18.7% progress rate [23]. - The total issuance of special bonds reached 1.03 trillion yuan by March 22, indicating a strong commitment to fiscal support for infrastructure projects [23].