寻锚大变局：全球资金在买什么？——全球资金流动周报第1期

Core Viewpoint - The research on global asset allocation is essential for tracking, measuring, and judging cross-border capital flows, especially in the context of current geopolitical turbulence and frequent macroeconomic narrative shifts. High-frequency capital movements often precede fundamental data, reflecting market expectations and risk preferences. The approach involves both "addition" and "subtraction" to comprehensively cover global asset dynamics while filtering out noise to identify impactful marginal variables [2][4]. Global Capital Flow Tracking Framework - The capital flow tracking framework includes three main components: 1. A panoramic view of global capital flows across major asset classes, utilizing a dual observation model of long-term (monthly) and short-term (weekly) perspectives to provide strategic and tactical insights [4][12]. 2. Tracking capital flows by region, focusing on the dynamics between major economies like the US, Europe, Japan, and China, to assess cross-border capital preferences and risk sentiments [4][12]. 3. Analyzing the structural changes in China's stock market, distinguishing between active and passive funds, as well as domestic and foreign capital, to better understand the micro liquidity environment [4][12]. Global Capital Flow Overview - As of February 2026, the total assets under management of major global funds reached approximately $48.40 trillion, with stock funds at $27.92 trillion (57.7%), money market funds at $10.13 trillion (20.9%), and bond funds at $9.33 trillion (19.3%) [5][20]. - The global fund management scale has shown a long-term upward trend but exhibits significant cyclical volatility, characterized by "quantity and price rising together" during upcycles and "significant retraction" during downturns [5][20]. Historical Series Analysis - In February 2026, global stock funds recorded a net inflow of $128.43 billion, placing it in the 97.8th percentile historically, while bond funds saw a net inflow of $86.45 billion (97.0th percentile), and money market funds experienced a net inflow of $77.60 billion (75.6th percentile) [6][26]. - Recent weekly observations indicate a decline in net inflows for stock and bond funds, with stock funds at $13.22 billion (46.8th percentile) and bond funds at $3.54 billion (6.5th percentile) for the week ending March 5, 2026 [6][31]. Core Market Insights - In the US, stock and bond funds have maintained net inflows, but the scale has significantly decreased in recent months, with stock funds at $253.3 billion (69.2nd percentile) and bond funds at $529.5 billion (89.5th percentile) as of February 2026 [7][33]. - European stock funds have seen continuous net inflows for 14 months, with a net inflow of $324.1 billion (98.5th percentile) in February 2026, while bond funds also maintained inflows at $168.2 billion (97.0th percentile) [7][36]. - Japanese stock funds reached a net inflow of $161.2 billion (97.7th percentile) in February 2026, with bond funds transitioning to net inflows of $6.3 billion (85.0th percentile) [7][43]. China Market Deep Dive - In February 2026, China's stock funds shifted from a significant outflow to a small inflow of $1 billion, while bond funds continued to experience outflows, albeit at a reduced scale of $3.7 billion (25.6th percentile) [8][64]. - The structure of stock fund flows indicates a significant reduction in outflows from domestic and passive funds, with active funds showing a net inflow of $21.3 billion (93.2nd percentile) [8][69]. - Weekly tracking for March 12, 2026, revealed a net outflow of $6.42 billion from Chinese stock funds, with active and passive funds also experiencing outflows [8][73].