伊朗战争已三周，美国“稳油价”的牌“几乎打完”，原油“期现价差”越拉越大！

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup warned that if the conflict continues, futures prices may exceed the historical record of $147.50 per barrel set in 2008 in the coming weeks [12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global oil market is experiencing a rare "decoupling" between futures and spot prices, with Brent crude futures soaring over 50% to approximately $112 per barrel, while the actual cost in the spot market is significantly higher, with jet fuel prices surpassing $200 per barrel [3][4] - The physical oil supply is severely constrained due to the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities, forcing Asian refineries to purchase cargoes at high premiums from thousands of miles away [7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) characterized the current situation as the largest oil supply disruption in history, estimating that approximately 17 million barrels per day of Gulf oil flow is affected by the conflict [9] Group 2: U.S. Policy Responses - The U.S. has been actively utilizing its "oil price stabilization" toolbox, which is nearing depletion, including the release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and considering the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil [10][11] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of another large-scale release of strategic reserves, although logistical feasibility has been questioned [10] - There are widespread speculations about potential U.S. intervention in the futures market, although this has been denied by officials, and the volatility has increased holding costs for traders, limiting their positions [11] Group 3: Future Price Implications - The divergence between futures and spot prices is historically uncommon, suggesting that the price gap will eventually converge, although it is uncertain whether this will result in a decline in spot prices [13]