热点思考 | 不降息或是美联储的“底线”—“流动性笔记”系列之九（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, leading to concerns about stagflation and tightening financial conditions, with the Federal Reserve's stance leaning towards hawkishness, indicating that not lowering interest rates may be the baseline policy [1][4][44]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market is currently speculating on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with the probability increasing from 0% to 12% as of March 20, 2026 [5][16][44]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to remain, with the likelihood of not lowering rates being a key point, while the conditions for a repeat of the 1970s stagflation are deemed insufficient [22][44]. - Financial pressures in the U.S. have intensified post-March FOMC meeting, leading to a tightening of market conditions, with significant declines in equities and commodities [16][44]. Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics and Economic Implications - Brent crude oil prices have surged to $111 per barrel by March 19, 2026, a significant increase of approximately 56% from $71 before the geopolitical conflict began [5][44]. - The article suggests that the conditions for a "great stagflation" in the U.S. are not present, and if the geopolitical situation escalates, a recession is more likely than prolonged stagflation [23][45]. - The supply shock from rising oil prices is expected to have a temporary inflationary effect, which may not lead to sustained demand increases due to various economic mechanisms [22][25][45]. Group 3: Feedback Loops and Future Scenarios - The relationship between oil prices, financial conditions, and the economy is described as a "negative feedback" loop, where rising oil prices could suppress demand and ultimately lead to lower prices [46][36]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions could be a favorable condition for oil prices to peak, but the potential for a prolonged increase in oil price levels remains a concern [33][46]. - The article emphasizes that if the geopolitical conflict is short-lived, oil prices may decline, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline, but if prices remain elevated longer than expected, it could trigger recession fears [22][36][46].