【绿城服务（2869.HK）】主营业务稳健增长，毛利率及ROE持续回升——2025年度业绩点评（何缅南/韦勇强）

Core Viewpoint - Greentown Service is projected to achieve a 25% year-on-year growth in core operating profit by 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit [4]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - The company expects to generate operating revenue of 19.164 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 7.1% year-on-year increase [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 880 million yuan, a 12.1% increase compared to the previous year, and a 29.9% increase from the 680 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - Core operating profit, defined as gross profit minus selling and administrative expenses, is anticipated to be 1.878 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.6% year-on-year growth [4]. Group 2: Business Performance and Profitability - The main business shows steady growth, with property service revenue reaching 13.644 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, accounting for 71.2% of total revenue [5]. - The overall gross margin for the company is expected to improve to 17.3% in 2025, up from 16.8% in 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 10.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from 9.2% in 2024, driven by cost control and business optimization efforts [5]. Group 3: Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - As of December 31, 2025, the company's cash and cash equivalents are expected to reach 5.32 billion yuan, a 9.6% increase from 4.854 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating strong cash reserves [6]. - The board has proposed a final dividend of 0.16 HKD per share and a special dividend of 0.08 HKD per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 75% [6]. - The company plans to repurchase 31.946 million shares in 2025, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [7]. Group 4: Expansion and Project Quality - The company has exceeded its target for new property management projects, achieving a saturated revenue goal of 4 billion yuan, with new projects having higher average property prices [7]. - The company continues to focus on core cities and key sectors, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, which shows strong economic growth and payment capacity from residents, businesses, and government owners [7]. - The ongoing enhancement of external expansion capabilities and project quality is expected to solidify the company's competitive position in the property management industry, laying a foundation for future revenue and profit growth [7].