中金：市场对伊朗风险定价充分了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in Iran has escalated, impacting global energy markets and financial stability, with Brent oil prices exceeding $110 per barrel and significant volatility in various asset classes [1][5][20]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The conflict has led to a substantial increase in Brent oil prices, which have risen to over $110 per barrel, and a 13% daily increase in TTF natural gas prices [1]. - Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility, with gold prices dropping 15% and U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.4%, marking the highest volatility since April 2025 [1][3]. - The market's expectation for the conflict's resolution has shifted from a quick end to a prolonged standoff, with the probability of resolution by March dropping from 78% to 4% [5][7]. Group 2: Asset Class Expectations - Different asset classes reflect varying expectations regarding the conflict and oil prices, indicating both risks and opportunities for investors [7]. - Bond markets are pricing in a pessimistic outlook, while equity markets have not fully accounted for the potential prolonged nature of the conflict and sustained high oil prices [7][21]. - Current expectations suggest that if the conflict does not extend into the third or fourth quarter, there may be opportunities to go long on bonds and gold, as their current pricing appears overly pessimistic [45]. Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Without the Iranian conflict, U.S. inflation is projected to peak at 2.8% in the second quarter, allowing for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [8][10]. - A sustained oil price above $100 per barrel could push inflation expectations higher, complicating the Fed's ability to cut rates [10][11]. - The market anticipates that if oil prices remain high, the Fed may delay rate cuts, with current expectations pushing the timeline for any cuts to September 2027 [21][34]. Group 4: U.S. and Chinese Market Impacts - U.S. equity markets have shown resilience compared to global markets, but there is a potential for a 10% correction if the conflict escalates further [35]. - In China, markets are experiencing divergence, with sectors sensitive to liquidity, such as Hong Kong and A-shares, reacting more negatively to the situation [41][42]. - The ongoing conflict may lead to a decline in external demand and impact sectors like chemicals and transportation, while defensive sectors in A-shares may provide better protection [46].