中金 | 有色金属：继续看好电解铝和黄金

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is driving stagflation trades that suppress the non-ferrous metal sector, impacting supply, demand, and monetary tightening expectations [1][2]. Supply Side - The Middle East conflict has led to supply tightening for non-ferrous metals, particularly electrolytic aluminum, due to disruptions in capacity, energy, and logistics [1]. - The region accounts for 9% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity, which may face power supply interruptions and war-related damages [2][3]. - The reliance on imported alumina (68%) from the Middle East poses a risk of raw material supply disruption if the Strait of Hormuz is closed [1][4]. Demand Side - Rising energy prices are creating inflation expectations that will suppress end-user demand and normal restocking needs due to global supply chain disruptions [1]. - The anticipated economic slowdown from the conflict will likely hinder the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations, making it difficult for real interest rates to rise further [2]. Monetary Side - The surge in inflation expectations may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reinforcing the stagflation trade that could lead to price fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector [1]. Outlook on Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum sector is facing three main production shocks: potential power supply interruptions in the Middle East, risks of raw material supply disruptions due to reliance on alumina imports, and the impact of LNG transport disruptions on European aluminum production [1][4]. - The recent announcements of force majeure by Qatar Aluminum and Bahrain Aluminum, with capacities of 636,000 tons and 1,620,000 tons respectively, have led to a significant increase in LME aluminum prices, reaching $3,418 per ton, the highest since 2022 [3][4]. Outlook on Gold - Despite short-term market panic leading to gold sell-offs, the long-term allocation value of gold is expected to strengthen as the Middle East tensions peak and the economic slowdown becomes more apparent [2]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to enhance gold's value in a de-dollarization process, further solidifying its role in a multi-polar global economy [2].